Determining mean and standard deviation of the strong gravity prior through simulations.

Humans expect downwards moving objects to accelerate and upwards moving objects to decelerate. These results have been interpreted as humans maintaining an internal model of gravity. We have previously suggested an interpretation of these results within a Bayesian framework of perception: earth gravity could be represented as a Strong Prior that overrules noisy sensory information (Likelihood) and therefore attracts the final percept (Posterior) very strongly. Based on this framework, we use published data from a timing task involving gravitational motion to determine the mean and the standard deviation of the Strong Earth Gravity Prior. To get its mean, we refine a model of mean timing errors we proposed in a previous paper (Jörges & López-Moliner, 2019), while expanding the range of conditions under which it yields adequate predictions of performance. This underscores our previous conclusion that the gravity prior is likely to be very close to 9.81 m/s2. To obtain the standard deviation, we identify different sources of sensory and motor variability reflected in timing errors. We then model timing responses based on quantitative assumptions about these sensory and motor errors for a range of standard deviations of the earth gravity prior, and find that a standard deviation of around 2 m/s2 makes for the best fit. This value is likely to represent an upper bound, as there are strong theoretical reasons along with supporting empirical evidence for the standard deviation of the earth gravity being lower than this value.