Delayed warming in Northeast China: Insights from an annual temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring δO.

Global warming has had an unprecedented impact on environmental changes and thus human life in mid-high latitude regions. As one of the areas most affected by global warming, Northeast China has suffered from a series of ecological crises, including warming-induced water deficits, permafrost thaw, and extended growing seasons. The change in annual average temperature (annual T) variations in Northeast China since the Industrial Revolution are still not fully understood, mainly because of the lack of long-term instrumental data and high-resolution annual T reconstructions. Here, we present the first annual T reconstruction (r = -0.683, p < .001, n = 60) for 1818-2012 in Northeast China, which may also be the first temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring δO in China. The reconstruction is significantly related to temperature variations over mid-high latitude Eurasia and agree (p < .01) with several long-term hydroclimatic reconstructions in the surrounding area. When the internal variability in the reconstruction was high, the decadal to multidecadal cycles were significant. Further analysis found that the reconstruction was mainly affected by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The reconstruction was significantly negatively correlated with several time series of annual T in the Northern Hemisphere, which showed that there is a substantial difference in annual T between Northeast China and other regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The difference mainly existed before the 1950s. From the 1850s to the 1950s, the annual T in Northeast China decreased slightly. However, extreme warming began in the 1950s in Northeast China, and this warming has been unprecedented during the past two centuries. If the warming trend since the 1950s continues, then it will lead to devastating disasters to forest and permafrost ecosystems in Northeast China.