Age-specific incidence rates of atrial fibrillation and risk factors for the future development of atrial fibrillation in the Japanese general population.

Background: Age-specific incidence rates of atrial fibrillation (AF) and risk factors for the development of AF have not been sufficiently determined in Japan.

Methods: A total of 130,396 community dwellers in Iwate Prefecture who did not have AF as assessed by an electrocardiogram at the 2010 annual health check-up were enrolled. We checked cases of newly developed AF in the following 3-year check-ups (in 2011, 2012, and 2013). Age-specific incidence rates (in subjects aged 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older) of AF were determined in both sexes, and multivariate-adjusted logistic regression analysis was performed using incident AF as an independent variable and already known risk factors at the 2010 survey as explanatory variables.

Results: Age-specific incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) of AF in subjects aged 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and 85 years or older were 1.42, 3.84, 6.73, 8.53, and 14.13, respectively, in males and 0.12, 0.53, 2.15, 3.40, and 10.48, respectively, in females. Odds ratios for incident AF and their 95% confidence intervals were 1.20 (1.01-1.43) in subjects with hypertension, 1.55 (1.30-1.85) in overweight subjects, 1.79 (1.23-2.61) in subjects with coronary artery disease, and 1.29 (1.08-1.53) in subjects who drank every day among male subjects and they were 1.70 (1.19-2.45) in subjects with hypertension and 1.64 (1.17-2.30) in overweight subjects among female subjects.

Conclusions: Age-specific incidence rates of AF in Iwate were determined. The results showed age, hypertension, obesity, coronary artery disease, and regular drinking habit significantly increased the risk of future development of AF.