Predictors and trajectories of ED visits among patients receiving palliative home care services: findings from a time series analysis (2013-2017).

Background: Current policies recommend integrating home care and palliative care to enable patients to remain at home and avoid unnecessary hospital admission and emergency department (ED) visits. The Italian health care system had implemented integrated palliative home care (IHPC) services to guarantee a comprehensive, coordinated approach across different actors and to reduce potentially avoidable ED visits. This study aimed to analyze the trajectories of ED visit rates among patients receiving IHPC in the Italian healthcare system, as well as the association between socio-demographic, health supply, and clinical factors.

Methods: A pooled, cross-sectional, time series analysis was performed in a large Italian region in the period 2013-2017. Data were taken from two databases of the official Italian National Information System: Home Care Services and ED use. A clinical record is opened at the time a patient is enrolled in IHPC and closed after the last service is provided. Every such clinical record was considered as an IHPC event, and only ED visits that occurred during IHPC events were considered.

Results: The 20,611 patients enrolled in IHPC during the study period contributed 23,085 IHPC events; ≥1 ED visit occurred during 6046 of these events. Neoplasms accounted for 89% of IHPC events and for 91% of ED visits. Although there were different variations in ED visit rates during the study period, a slight decline was observed for all diseases, and this decline accelerated over time (b = - 0.18, p = 0.796, 95% confidence interval [CI] = - 1.59;1.22, b-squared = - 1.25, p < 0.001, 95% CI = -1.63;-0.86). There were no significant predictors among the socio-demographic factors (sex, age, presence of a non-family caregiver, cohabitant family members, distance from ED), health supply factors (proponent of IHPC) and clinical factors (prevalent disorder at IHPC entry, clinical symptoms).

Conclusion: Our results show that use of ED continues after enrollment in IHPC, but the trend of this use declines over time. As no significant predictive factors were identified, no specific interventions can be recommended on which the avoidable ED visits depend.