AI Article Synopsis
- An objective law indicates that naive case fatality rates (CFRs) will initially decrease during an outbreak and then gradually increase toward the true CFR over time.
- Monitoring naive CFRs can help outbreak-controllers identify unconfirmed or undiscovered cases, highlighting potential delays in case confirmations.
- The analysis of COVID-19 outbreaks in regions like Hubei, France, and South Korea revealed that significant delays in confirming cases occurred, emphasizing the importance of tracking naive CFRs for better pandemic response.
Article Abstract
An objective law was observed that naive case fatality rates (CFRs) of a disease will decrease early and then gradually increase infinitely near the true CFR as time went on during an outbreak. The normal growth of naive CFR was an inherent character rather than indicating the disease was becoming more severe. According to the law, by monitoring real-time naive CFRs, it can help outbreak-controllers know if there were many cases left unconfirmed or undiscovered in the outbreak. We reflected on the use of the naive CFR in the context of COVID-19 outbreaks. The results showed that Hubei Province of China, France and South Korea had cases that were not confirmed in a timely manner during the initial stages of the outbreak. Delayed case confirmations existed for long periods of time in France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Spain. Monitoring of real-time naive CFRs could be helpful for decision-makers to identify under-reporting of cases during pandemics.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7834892 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2020.07.012 | DOI Listing |
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