On May 19, 2020, data confirmed that coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) had spread worldwide, with more than 4.7 million infected people and more than 316,000 deaths. In this article, we carry out a comparison of the methods to calculate and forecast the growth of the pandemic using two statistical models: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the Gompertz function growth model. The countries that have been chosen to verify the usefulness of these models are Austria, Switzerland, and Israel, which have a similar number of habitants. The investigation to check the accuracy of the models was carried out using data on confirmed, non-asymptomatic cases and confirmed deaths from the period February 21-May 19, 2020. We use the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the regression coefficient index R to check the accuracy of the models. The experimental results provide promising adjustment errors for both models (R>0.99), with the ARIMA model being the best for infections and the Gompertz best for mortality. It has also been verified that countries are affected differently, which may be due to external factors that are difficult to measure quantitatively. These models provide a fast and effective system to check the growth of pandemics that can be useful for health systems and politicians so that appropriate measures are taken and countries' health care systems do not collapse.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.5041/RMMJ.10413 | DOI Listing |
Materials (Basel)
October 2023
Department of Applied Bioeconomy, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, 51-630 Wroclaw, Poland.
The application of biochar as an additive to enhance the anaerobic digestion (AD) of biomass has been extensively studied from various perspectives. This study reported, for the first time, the influence of biochar incubation in the inoculum on the anaerobic fermentation of glucose in a batch-type reactor over 20 days. Three groups of inoculum with the same characteristics were pre-mixed once with biochar for different durations: 21 days (D21), 10 days (D10), and 0 days (D0).
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBioresour Technol
January 2024
Department of Railway Systems, Cumhuriyet University Sivas, Turkey. Electronic address:
Secondary sedimentation tank sludge (SSTS) is a severe type of waste that needs to be treated to prevent human health risks. Anaerobic digestion (AD) alone can be ineffective for treating SSTS due to low substrate biodegradability. This study proposes the use of ultrasonic pretreatment (UP) on SSTS for 0 - 60 min.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFInt Health
September 2021
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of North Texas Health Science Center, Fort Worth, TX, USA.
As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading in different parts of India, a reliable forecast for the cumulative confirmed cases and the number of deaths can be helpful for policymakers in making the decisions for utilizing available resources in the country. Recently, various mathematical models have been used to predict the outbreak of COVID-19 worldwide and also in India. In this article we use exponential, logistic, Gompertz growth and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict the spread of COVID-19 in India after the announcement of various unlock phases.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFRambam Maimonides Med J
July 2020
Faculty of Health Sciences, University San Jorge, Zaragoza, Spain.
On May 19, 2020, data confirmed that coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) had spread worldwide, with more than 4.7 million infected people and more than 316,000 deaths. In this article, we carry out a comparison of the methods to calculate and forecast the growth of the pandemic using two statistical models: the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the Gompertz function growth model.
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