Are convergence lines associated with high asthma presentation days? A case-control study in Melbourne, Australia.

Background: In epidemic thunderstorm asthma (ETSA) events a large number of people develop asthma symptoms over a short period of time. This is thought to occur because of a unique combination of high amounts of pollen and certain meteorological conditions. However, the exact cause and mechanism of epidemic thunderstorm asthma remains unclear.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that convergence lines may be a causative factor in ETSA events, by investigating whether convergence line weather events are associated with the occurrence of high asthma presentations days during the Victorian grass pollen season (October-December).

Methods: A case control method was used. All public hospitals within 75 km of the Melbourne weather radar were included, and data were taken from 2009 to 2017 during the Victorian grass pollen season. Cases hospital days were hospitals with a high number of asthma presentations within a 24-h period, and controls were hospitals with an expected number of asthma presentations. Exposure was defined as geographical proximity of a convergence line to the hospital case or control.

Results: Eighty-one case hospital days and 157 hospital day controls were included in the study. The odds of exposure to a convergence line were significantly higher for cases than for controls at all exposure distances. At 4 km, 80 of the 81 cases had been exposed to a convergence line.

Conclusion: Convergence lines appear to be a necessary, but not sufficient, element in the cause of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. This is the first study to show a clear link between epidemic thunderstorm asthma and convergence lines.