Observations show ocean temperatures are rising due to climate change, resulting in a fivefold increase in the incidence of regional-scale coral bleaching events since the 1980s; analyses based on global climate models forecast bleaching will become an annual event for most of the world's coral reefs within 30-50 yr. Internal waves at tidal frequencies can regularly flush reefs with cooler waters, buffering the thermal stress from rising sea-surface temperatures. Here we present the first global maps of the effects these processes have on bleaching projections for three IPCC-AR5 emissions scenarios. Incorporating semidiurnal temperature fluctuations into the projected water temperatures at depth creates a delay in the timing of annual severe bleaching ≥ 10 yr (≥ 20 yr) for 38% (9%), 15% (1%), and 1% (0%) of coral reef sites for the low, moderate, and high emission scenarios, respectively; regional averages can reach twice as high. These cooling effects are greatest later in twenty-first century for the moderate emission scenarios, and around the middle twenty-first century for the highest emission scenario. Our results demonstrate how these effects could delay bleaching for corals, providing thermal refugia. Identification of such areas could be a factor for the selection of coral reef marine protected areas.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70372-9 | DOI Listing |
Sci Adv
November 2024
CSIRO Environment, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia.
Although global warming is leading to more frequent mass coral bleaching events worldwide, parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have consistently escaped severe coral bleaching. Modeling and satellite observations show that climate refugia are created by the upwelling of cooler water to the surface through the interactions of tides and currents with dense reef structures. Here, we use a high-resolution nested regional ocean model to investigate the future status of two relatively large refugia.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFInt J Biometeorol
November 2024
Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa.
Accurately predicting exposure of animals to climate change requires evaluating the effects of warming on the microclimates they occupy. Birds, like many other taxa, make extensive use of cool microsites in vegetation during hot weather. Taking advantage of recent advances in modelling tree canopy microclimates, we combined LiDAR-based individual tree canopy mapping and biophysical modelling to evaluate the current and future availability of cool microsites in a subtropical African savanna landscape.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMar Pollut Bull
December 2024
Sesoko Marine Research Station, Tropical Biosphere Research Center, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan. Electronic address:
Global warming poses a significant threat to coral reefs. It has been assumed that mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs, 30 to 150 m depths) may serve as refugia from ocean warming. This study examined the acclimation capacity and thermal tolerance of two shallow coral species, Porites cylindrica and Turbinaria reniformis, transplanted to mesophotic depths (40 m) for 12 months.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFTrends Ecol Evol
December 2024
Department of Biology, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, V8P 5C2, Canada. Electronic address:
Hotspots - sites with high temperatures - are expected to favor heat-tolerant organisms. Lachs et al. tested this assumption with Palau corals.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFGlob Chang Biol
August 2024
The BITES Lab, Center for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes (Girona), Spain.
Rising global temperatures present unprecedented challenges to marine ecosystems, demanding a profound understanding of their ecological dynamics for effective conservation strategies. Over a comprehensive macroalgal assessment spanning three decades, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of shallow-water benthic communities in the southern Bay of Biscay, uncovering climate-resilient areas amidst the ongoing phase shift in the region. Our investigation identified seven locations serving as potential climate refugia, where cold-affinity, canopy-forming macroalgal species persisted and community structure was similar to that observed in 1991.
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