Chronic respiratory morbidity in the Bhopal gas disaster cohorts: a time-trend analysis of cross-sectional data (1986-2016).

Objectives: In 1984, nearly 500,000 inhabitants of Bhopal city, India, were exposed to toxic gases that leaked from a nearby pesticide manufacturing plant. In 1985, four cohorts were established to assess the long-term health impact of exposure, namely, mild, moderate, severely exposed and unexposed groups. The self-reported morbidity data of these cohorts were collected by follow-up cross-sectional surveys at regular intervals over the last 35 years. The present study aimed to analyse the long-term trend of chronic (duration of symptoms >3 months) respiratory morbidity in the four cohorts, stratified by age groups.

Study Design: The design of this study is a longitudinal analysis of cross-sectional respiratory morbidity data.

Methods: Chronic respiratory morbidity data within the cohorts were analysed at 5-year intervals (first recorded data from 1986). Based on age at the time of exposure, subjects were stratified into four age groups: children (aged <10 years), teenagers (aged ≥10 to <20 years), younger adults (aged ≥20 to <40 years) and older adults (aged ≥40 years).

Results: During the first decade, after exposure to the toxic gases, chronic respiratory morbidity in children and teenagers was high (up to 9.1%), which declined thereafter. Progressively increasing chronic respiratory morbidity was observed in both the younger and older adult age groups within all cohorts during the initial 5-10 years after exposure. Respiratory morbidity in both the younger and older adult age groups remained high for 15-20 years and thereafter recorded a declining trend. The highest respiratory morbidity observed during this study in the younger and older adult age groups was 38.6% and 59.5%, respectively; these values were both recorded in the severely exposed cohort.

Conclusions: Exposure to toxic gases released during the Bhopal gas disaster has resulted in chronic respiratory morbidity of the exposed population; this morbidity has continued over decades. The age of the individuals at the time of exposure and exposure severity were crucial determinants of the long-term trend of respiratory morbidity.