Popularity of natural American Spirit cigarettes is greater in U.S. cities with lower smoking prevalence.

Background: Often perceived as a safer smoke, Natural American Spirit (NAS) may find particular appeal in communities with strong non-smoking norms. We hypothesized NAS would be more popular in cities with lower smoking prevalence, with the pattern unique to NAS. We tested household income, cigarette taxes, and young adult population as alternative correlates and examined brand specificity, relative to Marlboro and Pall Mall.

Methods: Using proprietary, city-specific sales estimates obtained from Nielsen for 30 U.S. cities over one year (9/7/18-9/9/19), we computed cigarette sales volume as standard pack units per 10,000 adult smokers for NAS and Marlboro and Pall Mall. Linear regression models examined associations between city-level sales volume and adult smoking prevalence, median household income, the sum of state/local cigarette excise taxes, and young adult population.

Results: NAS sales volume averaged 44,785 packs per 10,000 adult smokers (SD = 47,676). Across 30 cities, adult smoking prevalence averaged 18.0% (SD = 4.5%), median household income averaged $53,677 (SD = $14,825), cigarette excise tax averaged $2.55 (SD = $1.63), and young adult population averaged 10.6% (SD = 2.2%). NAS sales volume was greater in cities with lower adult smoking prevalence (β = -0.39, 95% CI[-0.74, -0.03], p = 0.034), a pattern that was not observed for Marlboro or Pall Mall (ps > 0.356). Marlboro (β = -0.40, 95% CI[-0.76, -0.05], p = 0.027) and Pall Mall (β = -0.48, 95% CI[-0.82, -0.14], p = 0.008) sales volumes were higher in cities where cigarette excise taxes were lower, a pattern not observed for NAS (p = 0.224).

Conclusion: NAS appears to be more popular in cities with lower smoking prevalence and may deter efforts to further decrease prevalence.