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The best COVID-19 predictor is recent smell loss: a cross-sectional study. | LitMetric

AI Article Synopsis

  • COVID-19 commonly results in symptoms like sudden loss of smell (anosmia), leading researchers to investigate its reliability as a predictor for the virus.
  • A study using a global questionnaire found that participants who tested positive for COVID-19 experienced a significantly greater loss of smell compared to those who tested negative, with smell loss being a strong indicator of the illness.
  • The study developed a tool called ODoR-19, which uses a numeric scale to assess olfactory loss; a score of 2 or below suggests a high likelihood of having symptomatic COVID-19, particularly when testing options are limited.

Article Abstract

Background: COVID-19 has heterogeneous manifestations, though one of the most common symptoms is a sudden loss of smell (anosmia or hyposmia). We investigated whether olfactory loss is a reliable predictor of COVID-19.

Methods: This preregistered, cross-sectional study used a crowdsourced questionnaire in 23 languages to assess symptoms in individuals self-reporting recent respiratory illness. We quantified changes in chemosensory abilities during the course of the respiratory illness using 0-100 visual analog scales (VAS) for participants reporting a positive (C19+; n=4148) or negative (C19-; n=546) COVID-19 laboratory test outcome. Logistic regression models identified singular and cumulative predictors of COVID-19 status and post-COVID-19 olfactory recovery.

Results: Both C19+ and C19- groups exhibited smell loss, but it was significantly larger in C19+ participants (mean±SD, C19+: -82.5±27.2 points; C19-: -59.8±37.7). Smell loss during illness was the best predictor of COVID-19 in both single and cumulative feature models (ROC AUC=0.72), with additional features providing no significant model improvement. VAS ratings of smell loss were more predictive than binary chemosensory yes/no-questions or other cardinal symptoms, such as fever or cough. Olfactory recovery within 40 days was reported for ~50% of participants and was best predicted by time since illness onset.

Conclusions: As smell loss is the best predictor of COVID-19, we developed the ODoR-19 tool, a 0-10 scale to screen for recent olfactory loss. Numeric ratings ≤2 indicate high odds of symptomatic COVID-19 (10

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7386529PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.07.22.20157263DOI Listing

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