Prediction of carotid intima-media thickness and its relation to cardiovascular events in persons with type 2 diabetes.

Aims: To investigate measures of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and conventional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors as predictors of future carotid IMT, and the prediction of CV events during follow-up based on measures of carotid IMT.

Methods: Observational longitudinal study including 230 persons with type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Results: Mean age at follow-up was 66.7 (SD 8.5) years, 30.5% were women and mean body mass index (BMI) was 31.8 (4.4) kg/m. Carotid IMT was measured at baseline, after 18 months of intervention in the Copenhagen Insulin and Metformin Therapy (CIMT) trial and after a mean follow-up of 6.4 (1.0) years. Baseline carotid IMT, carotid IMT after 18 months' intervention, and CV risk factors (age, sex and baseline systolic blood pressure) gave the best prediction of carotid IMT (root mean-squared error of prediction of 0.106 and 95% prediction error probability interval of -0.160, 0.204).

Conclusions: Measures of carotid IMT combined with CV risk factors at baseline predicts attained carotid IMT better than measures of carotid IMT or CV risk factors alone. Carotid IMT did not predict CV events, and the present results do not support the use of carotid IMT as a predictor of CV events in persons with T2D.