Neoplasia Detection Rate in Barrett's Esophagus and Its Impact on Missed Dysplasia: Results from a Large Population-Based Database.

Background & Aims: It is a challenge to detect dysplasia in Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinomas (EACs) are missed in 25%-33% of cases. The neoplasia detection rate (NDR), defined as the rate of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or EAC detection during initial surveillance endoscopy, has been proposed as a quality metric for endoscopic evaluation of patients with BE. However, current estimates are from referral center cohorts, which might overestimate NDR. Effects on rates of missed dysplasia are also unknown. We analyzed data from a large cohort of patients with BE to estimate the NDR and factors associated with it, and assess the effects of the NDR on the rate of missed dysplasia.

Methods: We analyzed data from 1066 patients in the Rochester Epidemiology Project-linked medical record system, a population-based cohort of patients with BE (confirmed by review of the endoscopic and histologic reports) from 11 southeastern Minnesota counties from 1991 through 2019. Biopsies reported to contain dysplasia were confirmed by expert gastrointestinal pathologists. The NDR was calculated as the rate of HGD or EAC detected by histologic analyses of biopsies collected during the first surveillance endoscopy. Patients without HGD or EAC at their initial endoscopy (n = 391) underwent repeat endoscopy within 12 months; HGD or EAC detected at the repeat endoscopy were considered to be missed on index endoscopy. Factors associated with NDR and missed dysplasia were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models.

Results: The NDR was 4.9% (95% CI, 3.8-6.4); 3.1% of patients had HGD, 1.8% had EAC, and 10.6% had low-grade dysplasia. Factors associated with higher rates of detection of neoplasia included older age, male sex, smoking, increasing length of BE, and surveillance endoscopies by gastroenterologists. This NDR was associated with a substantially lower rate of missed dysplasia (13%).

Conclusions: In an analysis of 1066 patients with BE in a population-based cohort, we found a lower NDR and lower rate of missed dysplasia than previously reported. NDR may have value as a quality metric in BE surveillance if validated in other cohorts.