Penetrance of Breast and Ovarian Cancer in Women Who Carry a Mutation and Do Not Use Risk-Reducing Salpingo-Oophorectomy: An Updated Meta-Analysis.

Background: Use of risk-reducing Salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) substantially reduces the risk of ovarian and breast cancer for women who carry a mutation. It is important to adjust for RRSO use in the estimation of penetrance of breast and ovarian cancer.

Methods: We searched PubMed for penetrance estimates of breast and ovarian cancer from studies that genotyped individual patients and explicitly adjusted for RRSO use by censoring follow-up at the age of RRSO. We meta-analyzed penetrance estimates from 7 identified studies. We implemented the resulting penetrance estimates in a Mendelian risk prediction model as iplemented in the software package BRCAPRO, which we applied to estimate carrier probabilities in 2 cohorts.

Results: Penetrance estimates by age 70 years for breast cancer were 64.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 59.5% to 69.4%) for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 61.0% (95% CI = 48.1% to 72.5%) for BRCA2 mutation carriers, and for ovarian cancer they were 48.3% (95% CI = 38.8% to 57.9%) and 20.0% (95% CI = 13.3% to 29.0%), respectively. When integrated into BRCAPRO, our estimates led to good calibration and different estimates of carrier probabilities for some individuals when evaluating the models in 2 cohorts.

Conclusions: The report updates penetrance estimates for BRCA1/2-associated cancer. We report higher estimates than previously reported, which did not adjust for RRSO. Differential use of RRSO may partially explain heterogeneity in the currently available penetrance estimates. For some individuals, using our estimates in BRCAPRO may result in changes in estimated carrier probabilities, which warrants validation in future studies.