We combine analytical understanding of resonant dynamics in two-planet systems with machine-learning techniques to train a model capable of robustly classifying stability in compact multiplanet systems over long timescales of [Formula: see text] orbits. Our Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier (SPOCK) predicts stability using physically motivated summary statistics measured in integrations of the first [Formula: see text] orbits, thus achieving speed-ups of up to [Formula: see text] over full simulations. This computationally opens up the stability-constrained characterization of multiplanet systems. Our model, trained on ∼100,000 three-planet systems sampled at discrete resonances, generalizes both to a sample spanning a continuous period-ratio range, as well as to a large five-planet sample with qualitatively different configurations to our training dataset. Our approach significantly outperforms previous methods based on systems' angular momentum deficit, chaos indicators, and parametrized fits to numerical integrations. We use SPOCK to constrain the free eccentricities between the inner and outer pairs of planets in the Kepler-431 system of three approximately Earth-sized planets to both be below 0.05. Our stability analysis provides significantly stronger eccentricity constraints than currently achievable through either radial velocity or transit-duration measurements for small planets and within a factor of a few of systems that exhibit transit-timing variations (TTVs). Given that current exoplanet-detection strategies now rarely allow for strong TTV constraints [S. Hadden, T. Barclay, M. J. Payne, M. J. Holman, 158, 146 (2019)], SPOCK enables a powerful complementary method for precisely characterizing compact multiplanet systems. We publicly release SPOCK for community use.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7414196PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2001258117DOI Listing

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

multiplanet systems
16
compact multiplanet
12
[formula text]
12
stability compact
8
text] orbits
8
systems
7
stability
5
predicting long-term
4
long-term stability
4
multiplanet
4

Similar Publications

A main goal of human space exploration is to develop humanity into a multi-planet species where civilization extends beyond planet Earth. Establishing a self-sustaining human presence on Mars is key to achieving this goal. resource utilization (ISRU) on Mars is a critical component to enabling humans on Mars to both establish long-term outposts and become self-reliant.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

A backward-spinning star with two coplanar planets.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

February 2021

Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8551, Japan.

It is widely assumed that a star and its protoplanetary disk are initially aligned, with the stellar equator parallel to the disk plane. When observations reveal a misalignment between stellar rotation and the orbital motion of a planet, the usual interpretation is that the initial alignment was upset by gravitational perturbations that took place after planet formation. Most of the previously known misalignments involve isolated hot Jupiters, for which planet-planet scattering or secular effects from a wider-orbiting planet are the leading explanations.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

We investigated the dynamical stability of high-multiplicity and planetary systems. Our numerical simulations find instabilities in ~ 20% of the cases on a wide range of timescales (up to 5×10 orbits) and over an unexpectedly wide range of initial dynamical spacings. To identify the triggers of long-term instability in multi-planet systems, we investigated in detail the five-planet Kepler-102 system.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

We combine analytical understanding of resonant dynamics in two-planet systems with machine-learning techniques to train a model capable of robustly classifying stability in compact multiplanet systems over long timescales of [Formula: see text] orbits. Our Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier (SPOCK) predicts stability using physically motivated summary statistics measured in integrations of the first [Formula: see text] orbits, thus achieving speed-ups of up to [Formula: see text] over full simulations. This computationally opens up the stability-constrained characterization of multiplanet systems.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

The closet exoplanets to the Sun provide opportunities for detailed characterization of planets outside the Solar System. We report the discovery, using radial velocity measurements, of a compact multiplanet system of super-Earth exoplanets orbiting the nearby red dwarf star GJ 887. The two planets have orbital periods of 9.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!