Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers.

Objectives: To examine long-term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio-demographic, and competition-related factors influenced dropout.

Design: Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data.

Methods: Part 1-Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10-15 years (inclusive). Part 2-Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12-15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan-Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used.

Results: (1) Kaplan-Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93-4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age-group was associated with dropout (P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10- vs 15-year-olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout (P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained participation was five years (95% CI = 4.79-5.20), with 25.3% maintaining participation for ten years. Level of competition was associated (P < .001), with an 86% higher HR when considering lower competition levels (ie, club/district v national).

Conclusion: In a large representative sample of swimmers, survival analyses identified age-group, competition level, and city proximity were associated with increased swimming dropout rates.