AI Article Synopsis
- The UK is experiencing rising summer temperatures, with a record high of 38.7°C recorded in 2019, raising concerns about the possibility of surpassing 40°C.
- Human activities are increasing the chances of reaching temperature thresholds of 30°C, 35°C, and 40°C across the region.
- If greenhouse gas emissions continue without mitigation, the occurrence of days exceeding 40°C could shift from a rarity (every 100-300 years) to as frequent as every 3.5 years by the year 2100.
Article Abstract
As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 °C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 °C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 °C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 °C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 °C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7326920 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16834-0 | DOI Listing |
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