We used multi-agent simulations to estimate the testing capacity required to find and isolate a number of infections sufficient to break the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Depending on the mitigation policies in place, a daily capacity between 0.7 to 3.6 tests per thousand was required to contain the disease. However, if contact tracing and testing efficacy dropped below 60% (e.g. due to false negatives or reduced tracing capability), the number of infections kept growing exponentially, irrespective of any testing capacity. Under these conditions, the population's geographical distribution and travel behaviour could inform sampling policies to aid a successful containment.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7302294 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123372 | DOI Listing |
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