Trends of Physical Functioning, Morbidity, and Disability-Free Life Expectancy Among the Oldest Old: Six Repeated Cross-Sectional Surveys Between 2001 and 2018 in the Vitality 90+ Study.

Background: It remains unclear whether increasing longevity is accompanied by a compression or expansion of poor health and disability. We examined trends of physical functioning and morbidity in a population aged 90 and older, and disease- and disability-free life expectancy (LE) at age 90 between 2001 and 2018 in Finland's third most populated city.

Methods: We used survey data from the Vitality 90+ Study, which comprises a series of six repeated mailed surveys (7,590 observations). Information on mortality came from Statistics Finland. We examined trends of functioning (activities of daily living [ADL] and mobility) and cardiovascular and dementia morbidity using age-adjusted generalized estimating equation models stratified by sex. In addition, age-, sex-, and period-specific health expectancies were calculated using Sullivan's method.

Results: Over time, functioning improved, especially, in women, and morbidity increased in men. From 2001 to 2018, LE at age 90 increased by 5.3 months for men and 6.4 months for women. LE without ADL disability increased by 5.0 months for men and 8.4 months for women, and LE without mobility disability by 6.0 months for men and 4.4 months for women. LE without cardiovascular and dementia morbidity decreased for men (2.6 months) and increased for women (1.9 months).

Conclusions: In relative terms, we found a compression of disability for both sexes and an expansion of morbidity for men. Although the trends overall are rather positive, the increase in absolute morbidity and, to some extent, in disability will inevitably mean increasing care needs with population aging.