Risk of transition from occasional neck/back pain to long-duration activity limiting neck/back pain: a cohort study on the influence of poor work ability and sleep disturbances in the working population in Stockholm County.

Objectives: The prevalence of neck/back pain (NBP) is high worldwide. Limited number of studies have investigated workers with occasional NBP regarding the risk of developing long-duration activity limiting NBP (LNBP). The objectives were to assess (1) the effect of poor work ability and sleep disturbances in persons with occasional NBP on the risk of LNBP, and (2) the interaction effect of these exposures.

Design: Cohort study based on three subsamples from the Stockholm Public Health Cohort.

Settings: The working population in Stockholm County.

Participants: Persons aged 18-60 years, reporting occasional NBP the past 6 months at baseline year 2010 (n=16 460).

Measures: Work ability was assessed with items from the Work Ability Index, perceived mental and/or physical work ability. Sleep disturbances were self-reported current mild/severe disturbances. The outcome in year 2014 was reporting NBP the previous 6 months, occurring ≥couple of days per week and resulting in decreased work ability/restricted other daily activities. The additive effect of having both poor work ability and sleep disturbances was modelled with a dummy variable, including both exposures. Poisson log-linear regression was used to calculate risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs.

Results: At follow-up, 9% had developed LNBP. Poor work ability and sleep disturbances were independent risk factors for LNBP; adjusted RR 1.7 (95% CI: 1.4 to 2.0) and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2 to 1.5), respectively. No additive interaction was observed.

Conclusion: Workers with occasional NBP who have poor work ability and/or sleep disturbances are at risk of developing LNBP. Having both conditions does not exceed additive risk.