Association of right atrial structure with incident atrial fibrillation: a longitudinal cohort cardiovascular magnetic resonance study from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Background: While studies of the left atrium (LA) have demonstrated associations between volumes and emptying fraction with atrial fibrillation (AF), the contribution of right atrial (RA) abnormalities to incident AF remains poorly understood.

Objectives: Assess the association between RA structure and function with incident AF using feature-tracking cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR).

Methods: This is a prospective cohort study of all participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with baseline CMR, sinus rhythm, and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at study initiation. RA volume, strain, and emptying fraction in participants with incident AF (n = 368) were compared against AF-free (n = 2779). Cox proportional-hazards models assessed association between variables.

Results: Participants were aged 60 ± 10 yrs., 55% female, and followed an average 11.2 years. Individuals developing AF had higher baseline RA maximum volume index (mean ± standard deviation [SD]: 24 ± 9 vs 22 ± 8 mL/m, p = 0.002) and minimum volume index (13 ± 7 vs 12 ± 6 mL/m, p < 0.001), and lower baseline RA emptying fraction (45 ± 15% vs 47 ± 15%, p = 0.02), peak global strain (34 ± 17% vs 36 ± 19%, p < 0.001), and peak free-wall strain (40 ± 23% vs 42 ± 26%, p = 0.049) compared with the AF-free population. After adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and LA volume and function, we found RA maximum volume index (hazards ratio [HR]: 1.13 per SD, p = 0.041) and minimum volume index (HR: 1.12 per SD, p = 0.037) were independently associated with incident AF.

Conclusions: In a large multiethnic population, higher RA volume indices were independently associated with incident AF after adjustment for conventional cardiovascular risk factors and LA parameters. It is unclear if this predictive value persists when additional adjustment is made for ventricular parameters.