Trend of tuberculosis case notifications and their determinants in Africa and South-East Asia during 2000-2018: a longitudinal analysis of national data from 58 countries.

The World Health Organization (WHO) regions of Africa and South-East Asia are the epicentres of the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed at examining the trend and determinants of TB case notifications in the two regions during 2000-2018. This was a retrospective analysis of yearly, new TB cases notified to the WHO. We obtained data on potential determinants for the 58 countries in the two regions during 2000-2018. Multivariable longitudinal fixed-effects regression analysis was used to quantify the association between the determinants and TB notifications. During 2000-2018, TB notifications and incidence declined in Africa. In South-East Asia, case notifications increased while the incidence declined, on average, by 2% per year during the same period. After controlling for health, socioeconomic indicators, country and year fixed-effects, each 1% increase in the antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and the TB treatment success was associated with a decrease per 100,000 population in the TB case notification rate of -1.62 (95% CI: -4.93, -1.90;  = .037) and -0.91(95% CI: -1.54, -0.28;  = .005) respectively. Similarly, each 1-year increase in the life expectancy at birth resulted in a decrease in TB case notification rates of -6.64 (95% CI: -12.32, -0.95;  = .037). By contrast, a 1% increase in the unemployment rate resulted in an increase in TB notification rate of 3.49 cases (95% CI: 0.19, 6.79;  = .039). Improving population health and the broad scale-up of ART coverage could complement existing TB treatment coverage and cure programmes to drive down new cases in Africa and South-East Asia.