Spatial analysis of individual- and village-level sociodemographic characteristics associated with age at marriage among married adolescents in rural Niger.

Background: Niger has the highest prevalence of child marriage in the world. While child marriage in Niger is clearly normative in the sense that it is commonly practiced, the social and contextual factors that contribute to it are still unclear.

Methods: Here, we tested the importance of village-level factors as predictors of young age at marriage for a group of married adolescent girls (N = 1031) in the Dosso district of rural Niger, using multi-level and geographic analyses. We aggregated significant individual level factors to determine whether, independent of a girl's own sociodemographic characteristics, the impact of each factor is associated at the village level. Finally, we tested for spatial dependence and heterogeneity in examining whether the village-level associations we find with age at marriage differ geographically.

Results: The mean age of marriage for girls in our study was 14.20 years (SD 1.8). Our statistical results are consistent with other literature suggesting that education is associated with delayed marriage, even among adolescent girls. Younger ages at marriage are also associated with a greater age difference between spouses and with a greater likelihood of women being engaged in agricultural work. Consistent with results at the individual level, at the village level we found that the proportion of girls who do agricultural work and the mean age difference between spouses were both predictive of a lower age at marriage for individual girls. Finally, mapping age at marriage at the village level revealed that there is geographical variation in age at marriage, with a cluster of hot spots in the Hausa-dominated eastern area where age at marriage is particularly low and a cluster of cold spots in the Zarma-dominated western areas where age at marriage is relatively high.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that large-scale approaches to eliminating child marriage in these communities may be less successful if they do not take into consideration geographically and socially determined contextual factors at the village level.