Temporal trend of measles cases and impact of vaccination on mortality in Jigawa State, Nigeria, 2013-2017: a secondary data analysis.

Introduction: Measles is a highly infectious vaccine-preventable viral disease that mostly affects children less than five years old. Jigawa located in the north-west zone has the highest burden of measles in Nigeria. We reviewed Jigawa State measles surveillance data to identify measles trend and factors associated with mortality.

Methods: We conducted a secondary data analysis of measles specific integrated disease surveillance and response data for Jigawa State from January 2013 to December 2017. We extracted relevant variables and analyzed data using descriptive statistics and logistic regression model (α = 0.05). We estimated seasonal variation using an additive time series model.

Results: A total of 6,214 cases were recorded with 1038 (16.7%) confirmed by laboratory investigation. Only 1,185 (19.7%) had at least one dose of measles vaccine. Age specific attack and fatality rates were highest among children under the age of five years (503/100,000 and 1.8% respectively). The trend showed a decrease in number of cases across all the years. Seasonal variation existed with cases peaking in the first quarter. The likelihood of mortality associated with measles was higher among cases who had no vaccination (AOR = 4.7, 95% CI: 2.9-7.5) than those who had at least one dose of measles vaccine.

Conclusion: There was a decrease in the trend of measles cases, however, the vaccination coverage was very low in Jigawa State. Receiving at least one dose of measles vaccine reduces mortality among the cases. Strengthening routine immunization will reduce number of cases and mortality associated with the disease.