A trajectory analysis of daily step counts during a physician-delivered intervention.

Objectives: Higher steps are associated with lower mortality and cardiovascular event rates. We previously demonstrated that tailored physician-delivered step count prescriptions successfully increased steps/day in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and/or hypertension. In the present analysis, we examined patterns of step count change and the factors that influence different responses.

Design: Longitudinal observational study METHODS: Active arm participants (n=118) recorded steps/day. They received a step count prescription from their physician every 3-4 months. We computed mean steps/day and changes from baseline for sequential 30-day periods. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied.

Results: Four distinct trajectories of mean steps/day emerged, distinguishable by differences in baseline steps/day: sedentary (19%), low active (40%), somewhat active (30%) and active (11%). All four demonstrated similar upward slopes. Three patterns emerged for the change in steps from baseline: gradual decrease (30%), gradual increase with late decline (56%), and rapid increase with midpoint decline (14%); thus 70% had an increase from baseline. T2DM (odd ratios [OR]: 3.7, 95% CI 1.7, 7.7) and age (OR per 10-year increment: 2, 95% CI 1.3, 2.8) were both associated with starting at a lower baseline but participants from these groups were no less likely than others to increase steps/day.

Conclusions: T2DM and older age were associated with lower baseline values but were not indicators of likelihood of step count increases. A physician-delivered step count prescription and monitoring strategy has strong potential to be effective in increasing steps irrespective of baseline counts and other clinical and demographic characteristics.