Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan.

Chaos Solitons Fractals

Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro 3810-193, Portugal.

Published: June 2020

We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with special focus on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. We compute the basic reproduction number threshold, we study the local stability of the disease free equilibrium in terms of the basic reproduction number, and we investigate the sensitivity of the model with respect to the variation of each one of its parameters. Numerical simulations show the suitability of the proposed COVID-19 model for the outbreak that occurred in Wuhan, China.

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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7184012PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109846DOI Listing

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