Potential lethal outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) among the elderly in retirement homes and long-term facilities, France, March 2020.

Euro Surveill

Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, Équipe Biostatistique Santé, Pierre-Bénite, France.

Published: April 2020

AI Article Synopsis

  • - The study focuses on the serious risks of COVID-19 outbreaks in retirement homes and long-term care facilities for the elderly.
  • - It examines the potential effects in France, using specific age demographics and fatality rates related to age.
  • - The findings indicate that the death toll from a COVID-19 outbreak could match or significantly surpass the annual deaths from seasonal influenza among those over 65, based on infection rates.

Article Abstract

Motivated by the potential devastating effect of a COVID-19 outbreak in retirement homes and long-term facilities for dependent elderly, we present the impact of worst-case scenarios in French institutions using a specific age structure and case-age fatality ratios. The death toll could equal the yearly death toll caused by seasonal influenza in those older than 65 years or could largely exceed that, depending on the final attack rate and proportion of infected institutions.

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Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7175651PMC
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.15.2000448DOI Listing

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