Risk of stroke after emergency department visits for neurologic complaints.

Objective: To assess the risk of subsequent stroke among older patients discharged from an emergency department (ED) without a diagnosis of TIA or stroke.

Methods: Using electronic health record data from a large urban, university hospital and a community-based hospital, we analyzed patients aged 60-89 years discharged to home from the ED without an diagnosis of TIA or stroke. Based on the presence/absence of a head CT and the presence/absence of a chief complaint suggestive of TIA or stroke ("symptoms") during the index ED visit, we created 4 mutually exclusive groups (group 1, reference: head CT no, symptoms no; group 2: head CT no, symptoms yes; group 3: head CT yes, symptoms no; and group 4: head CT yes, symptoms yes). We calculated rates of stroke in the 30, 90, and 365 days after the index visit and used multivariable logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for subsequent stroke.

Results: Among 35,622 patients (mean age 70 years, 59% women, and 16% African American), unadjusted rates of stroke in 365 days were as follows: group 4: 2.5%; group 3: 1.1%; group 2: 0.69%; and group 1: 0.54%. The adjusted OR for stroke was 3.30 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.61-6.76) in group 4, 1.56 (95% CI, 1.16-2.09) in group 3, and 0.61 (95% CI, 0.22-1.67) in group 2.

Conclusions: Among patients discharged from the ED without a diagnosis of TIA or stroke, the occurrence of a head CT and/or specific neurologic symptoms established a clinically meaningful risk gradient for subsequent stroke.