Disaster incubation, cumulative impacts and the urban/ex-urban/rural dynamic.

This article explores environmental impacts and risks that can accumulate in rural and ex-urban areas and regions and their relation to urban and global development forces. Two Southern Ontario cases are examined: an area level water disaster and cumulative change at the regional level. The role of disaster incubation analysis and advanced environmental assessment tools are discussed in terms of their potential to contribute to more enlightened and effective assessment and planning processes. It is concluded that conventional approaches to EA and planning are characteristically deficient in addressing the full range of impacts and risks, and particularly those originating from pathogens, dispersed and insidious sources. Rigorous application of disaster incubation analysis and more advanced forms of EA has considerable potential to influence a different pattern of planning and decision making.