AI Article Synopsis
- The article discusses a SARS model developed by Hsu and Hsieh that predicts the size of the susceptible population without quarantine measures.
- It introduces an "acting basic reproductive number" to analyze the relationship between the initial and final sizes of the susceptible population; if a certain threshold is crossed, everyone gets infected.
- Results indicate that if the acting basic reproductive number is below a specific value, the disease will die out, allowing some individuals to remain uninfected, while an increase in the initial population leads to a higher final size of the susceptible population, depending on the acting reproductive rate.
Article Abstract
In this article, we present the continuing work on a SARS model without quarantine by Hsu and Hsieh [Sze-Bi Hsu, Ying-Hen Hsieh, Modeling intervention measures and severity-dependent public response during severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66 (2006) 627-647]. An "acting basic reproductive number" is used to predict the final size of the susceptible population. We find the relation among the final susceptible population size , the initial susceptible population , and . If , the disease will prevail and the final size of the susceptible, , becomes zero; therefore, everyone in the population will be infected eventually. If , the disease dies out, and then which means part of the population will never be infected. Also, when , is increasing with respect to the initial susceptible population , and decreasing with respect to the acting basic reproductive number .
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7111549 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmaa.2006.11.026 | DOI Listing |
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