AI Article Synopsis
- * A model evaluation predicts that an uncontrolled outbreak could result in over 250,000 cases in just 3 weeks, with around 37,194 patients needing intensive care.
- * The situation highlights the urgent need for aggressive containment strategies to manage the healthcare system's workload.
Article Abstract
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
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Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7118340 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293 | DOI Listing |
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