Attributable risk of all-cause mortality in hypertensive adults based on disease risk prediction model: A Chinese cohort study.

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the attributable risk for all-cause mortality in hypertensive adults living in Beijing, China.

Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study on the basis of the disease risk prediction model, which included 3006 hypertensive patients aged 50 and over who participated in the annual health examination from thirty-eight community health centers were randomly selected from all 53 community health centers in Dongcheng district of Beijing in China. This cohort study was conducted from January 1, 2013 to June 31, 2018 in these community health centers. Data included age, gender, education level, BMI, smoking and drinking status, renal function, diabetes mellitus (DM), coronary heart disease, levels of blood pressure, use of medications, and blood lipid levels.

Results: the follow-up time was 4.90±0.51 years. There were significant survival differences by gender, renal function (eGFR>90 vs. 60-90 vs. <60mL/min per 1.73m), smoking (smoking vs. No smoking), hypertension severity (SBP≥140 or DBP≥r vs. SBP/DBP<140/90mmHg), education level (<6 vs. 6-12 vs. >12 years), coronary heart disease (CHD) (CHD vs. NO CHD). In the multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, the prognostic factors of all-cause mortality in hypertensive patients were male [HR 1.662, 95% CI 1.110-2.489, p=0.014], educational level<6 years [HR 2.044, 95% CI 1.164-3.591, p 0.013], age ≥65 years [HR 3.092, 95% CI 1.717-5.571, p<0.001], smoking [HR 1.885, 95% CI 1.170-3.309, p=0.009], eGFR<60mL/min per 1.73m [HR 3.591, 95% CI 2.023-6.371, p<0.001].

Conclusions: we conclude that decreasing eGFR, increasing age, smoking, low education and gender (male) are significant and independent risk factor for mortality in hypertension for this urban cohort. Recommendations may include protecting renal function, providing patient education, and cessation of smoking. It highlights that early preventive measures are needed to detect kidney impairment and protect renal function. It also suggests that earlier smoking cessation may be important for hypertensive patients.