Risk Prediction Model for Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device Implantation After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for high-grade atrioventricular block requiring cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR).

Background: High-grade atrioventricular block requiring CIED remains a significant sequelae following TAVR. Although several pre-operative characteristics have been associated with the risk of post-operative CIED implantation, an accurate and validated risk prediction model is not established yet.

Methods: This was a single center, retrospective study of consecutive patients who underwent TAVR from March 10, 2011, to October 8, 2018. This cohort sample was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (group A) and a validation cohort (group B). A scoring system for risk prediction of post-TAVR CIED implantation was devised using logistic regression estimates in group A and the calibration and validation were done in group B.

Results: A total of 1,071 patients underwent TAVR during the study period. After excluding pre-existing CIED, a total of 888 cases were analyzed (group A: 507 and group B: 381). Independent predictive variables were as follows: self-expanding valve (1 point), hypertension (1 point), pre-existing first-degree atrioventricular block (1 point), and right bundle branch block (2 points). The resulting score was calculated from the total points. The internal validation in group B showed an ideal linear relationship in calibration plot (R = 0.933) and a good predictive accuracy (area under the curve: 0.693; 95% confidence interval: 0.627 to 0.759).

Conclusions: This prediction model accurately predicts post-operative risk of CIED implantation with simple pre-operative parameters.