AI Article Synopsis
- An outbreak of COVID-19 occurred on the Princess Cruises Ship in January-February 2020, prompting a study of its transmission dynamics using mathematical modeling.
- The mean reproduction number (R0) on the ship reached approximately 11, significantly higher than reported community transmission rates in countries like China and Singapore.
- After enhanced quarantine measures were implemented by the Japanese government, the transmission potential decreased, making further outbreaks on the Diamond Princess Ship unlikely.
Article Abstract
An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.
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Source |
|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068636 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003 | DOI Listing |
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