Viennese risk prediction score for Advanced Gastroesophageal carcinoma based on Alarm Symptoms (VAGAS score): characterisation of alarm symptoms in advanced gastro-oesophageal cancer and its correlation with outcome.

Introduction: The prognostic value of symptoms at disease presentation of advanced gastro-oesophageal cancer is unknown. Thus, the aim of this study was to characterise these symptoms and correlate them with the outcome, so new prognostic markers can be defined.

Methods: We analysed clinical data including symptoms, therapies and survival of patients with stage IV gastro-oesophageal cancer treated between 2002 and 2018 at the Vienna General Hospital, Austria. Initial symptoms as well as stenosis in endoscopy and HER2 positivity were evaluated in a cross-validation model to ascertain the impact of each variable on patient survival.

Results: In total, 258 patients were evaluated. Five factors (stenosis in endoscopy, weight loss, HER2 positivity, dyspepsia, ulcer or active bleeding) have proven to be statistically relevant prognostic factors and were given a count of +1 and -1, if applicable. The resulting score ranges between -3 and +2. The survival probability for 180 days with a score of -3/-2, -1, 0, +1 and +2 is 90%, 80%, 73%, 72% and 42%, whereas for 2 years, it is 30%, 30%, 8%, 7% and 3%, respectively. The median overall survival of a score of -3/-2, -1, 0, +1 and +2 was 579 (95% CI 274 to not measurable), 481 (95% CI 358 to 637), 297 (95% CI 240 to 346), 284 (95% CI 205 to 371), 146 (95% CI 120 to 229) days, respectively.

Conclusion: The data from this retrospective study indicate that the Viennese risk prediction score for Advanced Gastroesophageal carcinoma based on Alarm Symptoms score provides independent prognostic information that may support clinical decision making at diagnosis of advanced gastro-oesophageal cancer. Our findings should be evaluated in prospective studies.