Tobacco Use Trajectories in Young Adults: Analyses of Predictors Across Systems Levels.

Introduction: Research is needed to examine trajectories of tobacco use beyond cigarette smoking, particularly during emerging middle young adulthood, and to identify distinct multilevel influences of use trajectories.

Aims And Methods: We examined (1) tobacco use trajectories over a 2-year period among 2592 young adult college students in a longitudinal cohort study and (2) predictors of these trajectories using variables from a socioecological framework, including intrapersonal-level factors (eg, sociodemographics, psychosocial factors [eg, adverse childhood experiences, depressive symptoms, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms], early-onset substance use), interpersonal factors (eg, social support, parental substance use), and community-level factors (eg, college type, rural vs. urban).

Results: About 64.5% were female and 65.0% were white. From age 18 to 26, 27%-31% of participants reported past 30-day use of any tobacco product. We identified four trajectory classes: Abstainers/Dabblers who never or infrequently used (89.2%); Adult users who began using frequently around age 20 and continued thereafter (5.9%); College Smokers who began using before 19 but ceased use around 25 (2.5%); and Teenage users who used during their teenage years but ceased use by 22 (1.9%). Multinomial regression showed that, compared to Abstainers/Dabblers, significant predictors (p < .05) of being (1) Adult users included being male, earlier onset marijuana use, attending public universities or technical colleges (vs. private universities), and living in urban areas; (2) College users included being male, earlier onset marijuana use, and parental alcohol or marijuana use; and (3) Teenage users included only earlier onset marijuana use.

Conclusion: Distinct prevention and intervention efforts may be needed to address the trajectories identified.

Implications: Among young adult college students, the largest proportion of tobacco users demonstrate the risk of continued and/or progression of tobacco use beyond college. In addition, specific factors, particularly sex, earlier onset marijuana use, parental use of alcohol and marijuana, and contextual factors such as college setting (type of school, rural vs. urban) may influence tobacco use outcomes. As such, prevention and cessation intervention strategies are needed to address multilevel influences.