Predictive performance of the mHAP-II score in a real-life western cohort with hepatocellular carcinoma following trans-arterial chemoembolisation with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE).

Objectives: To evaluate the predictive performance of the modified hepatoma arterial embolisation prognostic II (mHAP-II) score in a real-life western hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cohort treated with drug-eluting bead-TACE and compare the mHAP-II with other scores in this cohort.

Methods: One hundred seventy-nine HCC patients (mean age 77 (± 9) years, 87% male) with one or more drug-eluting bead (DEB)-TACE sessions using 100-300 μm microspheres were retrospectively analysed. Performance analysis of the mHAP-II score was based on Mann-Whitney U tests, the Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank tests, receiver operating characteristics, Akaike's information criterion and Cox regression models.

Results: In this population, HCC risk factors were mainly alcohol abuse (31%) and hepatitis C (28%). The median survival of the entire cohort was 29.4 months. mHAP-II classification of the cohort was mHAP-II B (30%), C (41%) and D (23%) respectively. Survival of all subgroups differed significantly from each other (each p < 0.05). Area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic was 0.60 and Akaike's information criterion was 21.8 (p = 0.03), indicating a superior performance of mHAP-II score compared with HAP score and BCLC. Tumour number ≥ two (HR 1.54), alpha-fetoprotein > 400 μg/l (HR 1.14), serum albumin < 3.6 g/dl (HR 1.63) and total bilirubin > 0.9 mg/dl (HR 1.58) contributed significantly in Cox proportional hazards regression (each p < 0.05).

Conclusion: The mHAP-II score can predict survival outcomes of western HCC patients undergoing DEB-TACE and further subdivide this heterogeneous group; however, certain limitations concerning the predictive power of mHAP-II score must be taken into account.

Key Points: • This retrospective study evaluated the predictive performance of the modified hepatoma arterial embolisation prognostic II (mHAP-II) score in a real-life western HCC cohort treated with drug-eluting bead-TACE. • Survival of all mHAP-II subgroups differed significantly, area under the curve for mHAP-II was 0.60 and Akaike's information criterion was 21.8. • The mHAP-II score can predict survival outcomes of western HCC patients undergoing DEB-TACE and further subdivide this heterogeneous group. However, because the study is underpowered, true survival prediction may be more difficult to infer.