Landscape structure and climate drive population dynamics of an insect vector within intensely managed agroecosystems.

Characterizing factors affecting insect pest populations across variable landscapes is a major challenge for agriculture. In natural ecosystems, insect populations are strongly mediated by landscape and climatic factors. However, it has proven difficult to evaluate if similar factors predict pest dynamics in agroecosystems because control tactics exert strong confounding effects. We addressed this by assessing whether species distribution models could effectively characterize dynamics of an insect pest in intensely managed agroecosystems. Our study used a regional multi-year data set to assess landscape and climatic drivers of potato psyllid (Bactericera cockerelli) populations, which are often subjected to calendar-based insecticide treatments because they transmit pathogens to crops. Despite this, we show that psyllid populations were strongly affected by landscape and climatic factors. Psyllids were more abundant in landscapes with high connectivity, low crop diversity, and large natural areas. Psyllid population dynamics were also mediated by climatic factors, particularly precipitation and humidity. Our results show that many of the same factors that drive insect population dynamics in natural ecosystems can have similar effects in an intensive agroecosystem. More broadly, our study shows that models incorporating landscape and climatic factors can describe pest populations in agroecosystems and may thus promote more sustainable pest management.