Impact of influenza vaccine-modified infectivity on attack rate, case fatality ratio and mortality.

J Theor Biol

Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM), York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada; Fields-CQAM Laboratory of Mathematics for Public Health, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada. Electronic address:

Published: May 2020

Generally, vaccines are designed to provide protection against infection (susceptibility), disease (symptoms and transmissibility), and/or complications. In a recent study of influenza vaccination, it was observed that vaccinated yet infected individuals experienced increased transmission levels. In this paper, using a mathematical model of infection and transmission, we study the impact of vaccine-modified effects, including susceptibility and infectivity, on important epidemiological outcomes of an immunization program. The balance between vaccine-modified susceptibility, infectivity and recovery needed in preventing an influenza outbreak, or in mitigating the health outcomes of the outbreak is studied using the SIRV-type of disease transmission model. We also investigate the impact of influenza vaccination program on the infection risk of vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110190DOI Listing

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