Mortality prediction model for patients with bladder urothelial tumor after radical cystectomy.

Objective: Based on preoperative clinical and postoperative pathological variables, we aim to build a prediction model of cancer specific mortality (CSM) at 1, 3, and 5 years for patients with bladder transitional cell carcinoma treated with RC.

Material And Methods: Retrospective analysis of 517 patients with diagnosis of cell carcinoma treated by RC (1986-2009). Demographic, clinical, surgical and pathological variables were collected, as well as complications and evolution after RC. Comparative analysis included Chi square test and ANOVA technique. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using logistic regression to identify the independent predictors of CSM. The individual probability of CSM was calculated at 1, 3 and 5 years according to the general equation (logistic function). Calibration was obtained by the Hosmer-Lemeshow method and discrimination with the elaboration of a ROC curve (area under the curve).

Results: BC was the cause of death in 225 patients (45%). One, three and five-year CSM were 17%, 39.2% and 46.3%, respectively. The pT and pN stages were identified as independent prognostic variables of CSM at 1, 3 and 5 years. Three prediction models were built. The predictive capacity was 70.8% (CI 95% 65-77%, p=.000) for the 1st year, 73.9% (CI95% 69.2-78.6%, p=.000) for the third and 73.2% (CI% 68.5-77.9%, p=.000) for the 5th.

Conclusions: The prediction model allows the estimation of CSM risk at 1, 3 and 5 years, with a reliability of 70.8, 73.9 and 73.2%, respectively.