Disconnected pancreatic duct syndrome predicts failure of percutaneous therapy in necrotizing pancreatitis.

Background/objectives: Minimally invasive approaches, such as percutaneous drainage (PD), are increasingly utilized as initial treatment in necrotizing pancreatitis (NP) requiring intervention. Predictors of success of PD as definitive treatment are lacking. Our aim was to assess the application, predictors of success, and natural history of PD in NP. We hypothesized that necrosis morphology patterns and disconnected pancreatic duct syndrome (DPDS) may predict the ability of PD to provide definitive therapy.

Methods: 714 NP patients were treated from 2005 to 2018. Patients achieving disease resolution with PD alone (PD) were compared to those requiring an escalation in intervention (Step). Outcomes were compared between groups using independent samples t-test, Fisher's exact test, and Pearson's correlation, as appropriate. P < 0.05 was accepted as statistically significant.

Results: 115 patients were initially managed with PD (42 PD, 73 Step). No difference in necrosis morphology was seen between the two groups. The PD group underwent significantly more repeat percutaneous interventions (PD, 3.2; Step, 2.0; P = 0.0006) including additional drain placement and drain upsize/reposition procedures. Patients with DPDS were more likely to require an escalation in intervention (odds ratio, 3.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-7.6; P = 0.003). The mean number of months to NP resolution was similar (PD, 5.7; Step, 5.8; P = 0.9). Mortality was similar (PD, 7%; Step 14%, P = 0.3).

Conclusions: Necrosis morphology in and of itself does not reliably predict successful definitive treatment by percutaneous drainage. However, patients with disconnected pancreatic duct syndrome were less likely to have definitive resolution with PD alone.