Stratification of long-term outcome in stable idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis by combining longitudinal computed tomography and forced vital capacity.

Objectives: To test HRCT with either visual or quantitative analysis in both short-term and long-term follow-up of stable IPF against long-term (transplant-free) survival, beyond 2 years of disease stability.

Methods: Fifty-eight IPF patients had FVC measurements and HRCTs at baseline (HRCT0), 10-14 months (HRCT1) and 22-26 months (HRCT2). Visual scoring, CALIPER quantitative analysis of HRCT measures, and their deltas were evaluated against combined all-cause mortality and lung transplantation by adjusted Cox proportional hazard models at each time interval.

Results: At HRCT1, a ≥ 20% relative increase in CALIPER-total lung fibrosis yielded the highest radiological association with outcome (C-statistic 0.62). Moreover, the model combining FVC% drop ≥ 10% and ≥ 20% relative increase of CALIPER-total lung fibrosis improved the stratification of outcome (C-statistic 0.69, high-risk category HR 12.1; landmark analysis at HRCT1 C-statistic 0.66, HR 14.9 and at HRCT2 C-statistic 0.61, HR 21.8). Likewise, at HRCT2, the model combining FVC% decrease trend and ≥ 20% relative increase of CALIPER-pulmonary vessel-related volume (VRS) improved the stratification of outcome (C-statistic 0.65, HR 11.0; landmark analysis at HRCT1 C-statistic 0.62, HR 13.8 and at HRCT2 C-statistic 0.58, HR 12.6). A less robust stratification of outcome distinction was also demonstrated with the categorical visual scoring of disease change.

Conclusions: Annual combined CALIPER -FVC changes showed the greatest stratification of long-term outcome in stable IPF patients, beyond 2 years.

Key Points: • Longitudinal high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) data is more helpful than baseline HRCT alone for stratification of long-term outcome in IPF. • HRCT changes by visual or quantitative analysis can be added with benefit to the current spirometric reference standard to improve stratification of long-term outcome in IPF. • HRCT follow-up at 12-14 months is more helpful than HRCT follow-up at 23-26 months in clinically stable subjects with IPF.