Dynamics of the occurrence of influenza in relation to seasonal variation in Chennai, Tamil Nadu: A 7 -year cumulative study.

Background: Influenza viruses have emerged as virulent pathogens causing considerable burden across the world. A thorough understanding of the pattern in occurrence of influenza globally is the need of hour. The present study deals with analysis of the dynamics of Influenza virus, especially the influence of seasonal change on viral circulation and causation of epidemics/pandemics in the context of subtropical region.

Methods: During the 7 year (2009-2015) study, 36670 specimens were subjected to influenza analysis. Nasopharyngeal swabs collected from suspected patients from Chennai, Tamil Nadu, were tested and typed by real-time polymerase chain reaction assay.

Results: During 2009 pandemic, among influenza A positives 95.16% were Apdm09, indicating that there was a predominant circulation of Apdm09. During postpandemic period, there were waves in the occurrence of Apdm09 which indicates fall in immunity with buildup in the susceptible population.

Conclusion: In Chennai, Tamil Nadu, influenza positivity started with the onset of monsoon and peaks during the postmonsoon months throughout the study period. The assessment of meteorological factors compounding influenza activity can help in raising alerts to the public health officials of impending disaster which suggests that Influenza vaccination can be initiated before monsoon months in South India.