Temporal Changes in Resting Heart Rate, Left Ventricular Dysfunction, Heart Failure and Cardiovascular Disease: CARDIA Study.

Background: The prognostic significance of temporal changes in resting heart rate in young adults for premature heart failure and cardiovascular disease is unclear. We investigated the association between temporal changes in resting heart rate in young adults and early adult risk factors, subsequent cardiac function, and the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular by middle age.

Methods: We examined 4343 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study participants (mean [SD] age was 29.9 [3.6] years at the CARDIA Year-5 examination [1990-1991], 49% of participants were men, and 45% were African-American). Adjusted linear regression models were used to assess the association between temporal changes in resting heart rate, early life cardiovascular disease risk factors, and midlife cardiac function. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to relate temporal changes in resting heart rate to heart failure and cardiovascular disease. Outcomes were followed up until August 31, 2017.

Results: Higher alcohol consumption (β = 0.03, P <0.001), lower physical activity (β = 0.002, P = 001), smoking (β = 1.58, P <0.001), men (P <0.001), African Americans (P <0.001), impaired left ventricular relaxation (e´,β = -0.13, P = 0.002), and worse diastolic function (E/e´, β = 0.1, P = 0.01) were associated with longitudinal increases in resting heart rate. We observed 268 cardiovascular disease and 74 heart failure events over a median of 26 years. In Cox models, baseline and temporal changes in resting heart rate were associated with higher risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] =1.37 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.05-1.79] and HR = 1.38 95% CI [1.02-1.86]) and a higher risk cardiovascular disease (HR = 1.23 95% CI [1.07-1.42] and HR = 1.23 95% CI [1.05-1.44]).

Conclusions: Baseline and temporal changes in resting heart rate in young adults were associated with incident heart failure and cardiovascular disease by midlife. Contributory factors were associations between temporal increases in resting heart rate and early adult risk factors and subsequent cardiac dysfunction.