Elastography and serum markers of fibrosis versus liver biopsy in 1270 Egyptian patients with hepatitis C.

Background: Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a leading cause of liver fibrosis.

Objective: To compare utility of liver transient elastography, AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 index (FIB4), Forns Index and Goteborg University cirrhosis index (GUCI) in predicting fibrosis stage assessed by liver biopsy in Egyptian CHC patients.

Methods: One thousand two-hundred and seventy CHC patients undergoing liver biopsy in preparation for therapy and 40 healthy potential living liver donors had transient elastography and calculation of APRI, FIB4, Forns and GUCI scores on the same day or day preceding the biopsy.

Results: Mean age was 39.89 (17-60 years) and most were males (70.7%). All donors had F0 fibrosis, most patients had F1-F2 fibrosis (n = 1011, 79.6%) and 259 (20.4%) had F3-F4 fibrosis. Patients with F3-F4 fibrosis had higher median values of APRI (0.99 vs. 0.46), FIB4 (2.15 vs. 0.95) and Forns (7.34 vs. 4.79) indices, GUCI score (1.16 vs. 0.49) and transient elastography (19.2 vs. 6.2 kPa) (all P = 0.001). For F1 discrimination, AUROC of transient elastography was higher than both Forns and GUCI scores (P = 0.001). APRI, FIB4 and GUCI had lower AUROC than transient elastography for predicting fibrosis stage in F2 and F3 patients (P = 0.001). Transient elastography had the best area under receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting fibrosis stage in F4 patients (P = 0.001). The transient elastography cutoff values (kPa) were F1 (>4.8), F2 (>8.3), F3 (>10.1) and F4 (>13.4). Age, APRI, FIB4, Forns, GUCI and transient elastography were independent predictors of F3-F4 fibrosis.

Conclusion: Liver elastography is superior to APRI, FIB4, Forns and GUCI scores in predicting fibrosis in CHC patients.