How large should a cause of death be in order to be included in mortality trend analysis? Deriving a cut-off point from retrospective trend analyses in 21 European countries.

Objectives: The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) distinguishes a large number of causes of death (CODs) that could each be studied individually when monitoring time-trends. We aimed to develop recommendations for using the size of CODs as a criterion for their inclusion in long-term trend analysis.

Design: Retrospective trend analysis.

Setting: 21 European countries of the WHO Mortality Database.

Participants: Deaths from CODs (3-position ICD-10 codes) with ≥5 average annual deaths in a 15-year period between 2000 and 2016.

Primary And Secondary Outcome Measures: Fitting polynomial regression models, we examined for each COD in each country whether or not changes over time were statistically significant (with α=0.05) and we assessed correlates of this outcome. Applying receiver operating characteristicROC curve diagnostics, we derived COD size thresholds for selecting CODs for trends analysis.

Results: Across all countries, 64.0% of CODs had significant long-term trends. The odds of having a significant trend increased by 18% for every 10% increase of COD size. The independent effect of country was negligible. As compared to circulatory system diseases, the probability of a significant trend was lower for neoplasms and digestive system diseases, and higher for infectious diseases, mental diseases and signs-and-symptoms. We derived a general threshold of around 30 (range: 28-33) annual deaths for inclusion of a COD in trend analysis. The relevant threshold for neoplasms was around 65 (range: 61-70) and for infectious diseases was 20 (range: 19-20).

Conclusions: The likelihood that long-term trends are detected with statistical significance is strongly related to COD size and varies between ICD-10 chapters, but has no independent relation to country. We recommend a general size criterion of 30 annual deaths to select CODs for long-term mortality-trends analysis in European countries.