Ephemeral and Localized Outbreaks of the Coral Predator cf. in the Southwestern Lagoon of New Caledonia.

Outbreaks of the coral predator spp., the crown-of-thorns seastar (COTS), cause major coral declines across the Indo-Pacific. However, the processes surrounding the initiation and propagation of COTS outbreaks are still unclear. We observed COTS outbreak abundances on several mid-shelf and inner-barrier reefs in the southern section of the New Caledonian lagoon, a multi-location initiation event that we expected to precede a broader region-wide disturbance. However, reef monitoring over 3 years revealed the highly localized and ephemeral character of these outbreaks. Outbreaks that were observed at four reef locations at the beginning of the survey simply faded away, without any specific management actions such as culling efforts. We also found no distinct reef biotope on which COTS outbreaks originated, although mid-shelf and inner-shelf barrier reefs seem to be favoured. New Caledonia has been exempted from to widespread regional COTS outbreaks, which is surprising given its proximity to the Australian Great Barrier Reef - a reef complex particularly vulnerable to COTS - and Vanuatu - where large-scale outbreaks were recorded during the same period. The availability of coral prey is probably not a limiting factor for the propagation of COTS outbreaks on New Caledonian reefs, given the high abundance and diversity of coral assemblages. Our findings reveal that localized and ephemeral COTS outbreaks can be naturally contained and do not necessarily result in widespread disturbances.