Risk of atrial fibrillation in persons with type 2 diabetes and the excess risk in relation to glycaemic control and renal function: a Swedish cohort study.

Background: To examine the incidence of atrial fibrillation in individuals with type 2 diabetes compared with age- and sex-matched controls from the general population and its variation in relation to glycaemic control and renal function.

Methods: A total of 421,855 patients with type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Registry and 2,131,223 controls from the Swedish Population Registry, matched for age, sex and county, were included and followed from January 1, 2001 to December 31, 2013.

Results: Overall, 8.9% of individuals with type 2 diabetes and 7.0% of controls were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation during follow-up, unadjusted incidence risk ratio (IRR) 1.35 (95% 1.33-1.36). Women < 55 years old with type 2 diabetes had an IRR of 2.36 (95% CI 2.10-2.66), in relation to controls, whereas the corresponding value for men < 55 years old with type 2 diabetes was IRR 1.78 (95% CI 1.67-1.90). In the fully adjusted Cox regression, the risk of type 2 diabetes on incident atrial fibrillation was 28% greater vs controls, hazard ratio (HR) 1.28 (95% CI 1.26-1.30), p < 0.0001. The excess risk of atrial fibrillation in individuals with type 2 diabetes increased with worsening glycaemic control and renal complications. For individuals with HbA1c ≤ 6.9% (≤ 52 mmol/mol) and normoalbuminuria the excess risk vs controls was still increased, adjusted HR 1.16 (95% CI 1.14-1.19); p < 0.0001.

Conclusions: Individuals with type 2 diabetes had an overall 35% higher risk of atrial fibrillation compared to age- and sex-matched controls from the general population. The excess risk for atrial fibrillation increased with renal complications or with poor glycaemic control. Individuals with type 2 diabetes with good glycaemic control and normoalbuminuria had slightly increased risk.