A comparison of rolling averages versus discrete time epochs for assessing the worst-case scenario locomotor demands of professional soccer match-play.

Objectives: To compare fixed epochs (FIXED) and rolling averages (ROLL) for quantifying worst-case scenario ('peak') running demands during professional soccer match-play, whilst assessing contextual influences.

Design: Descriptive, observational.

Methods: Twenty-five outfield players from an English Championship soccer club wore 10-Hz microelectromechanical systems during 28 matches. Relative total and high-speed (>5.5ms) distances were averaged over fixed and rolling 60-s to 600-s epochs. Linear mixed models compared FIXED versus ROLL and assessed the influence of epoch length, playing position, starting status, match result, location, formation, and time-of-day.

Results: Irrespective of playing position or epoch duration, FIXED underestimated ROLL for total (∼7-10%) and high-speed (∼12-25%) distance. In ROLL, worst-case scenario relative total and high-speed distances reduced from 190.1±20.4mmin and 59.5±23.0mmin in the 60-s epoch, to 120.9±13.1mmin and 14.2±6.5mmin in the 600-s epoch, respectively. Worst-case scenario total distance was higher for midfielders (∼9-16mmin) and defenders (∼3-10mmin) compared with attackers. In general, starters experienced higher worst-case scenario total distance than substitutes (∼3.6-8.5mmin), but lower worst-case scenario high-speed running over 300-s (∼3mmin). Greater worst-case scenario total and high-speed distances were elicited during wins (∼7.3-11.2mmin and ∼2.7-7.9mmin, respectively) and losses (∼2.7-5.7mmin and ∼1.4-2.2mmin, respectively) versus draws, whilst time-of-day and playing formation influenced worst-case scenario high-speed distances only.

Conclusions: These data indicate an underestimation of worst-case scenario running demands in FIXED versus ROLL over 60-s to 600-s epochs while highlighting situational influences. Such information facilitates training specificity by enabling sessions to be targeted at the most demanding periods of competition.