Decadal dynamics of subtidal barrens habitat.

Rocky reef barrens that are devoid of macroalgae can be created by various mechanisms, and are often maintained in the long-term by grazing urchins. The persistence of barrens varies greatly among locations, although few studies have investigated the stability of this habitat over multiple decades, particularly at large spatial scales. We used aerial images to test for differences in temporal trajectories of shallow (2-10 m) barrens at 21 sites (average size 12 ha) over 30 years across 500 km of coastline in New South Wales, Australia. Longer-term (40-68 yr) trajectories of barrens cover were documented for five of the sites and these generally reflected the 30-year patterns. Averaged across all sites, barrens area increased at a rate of 19.9 ± 8.4 m per year per hectare of reef from 1980s-2010s. Importantly, however, 55% of sites had stable or fluctuating (±10% cover) barrens over this period, rather than displaying continual increases. Although the extent of shallow barrens increases with latitude, the temporal dynamics of barrens did not differ among three latitudinal regions where barrens are the most extensive. Associations between variability in barrens cover and environmental variables indicated that reef topography might pay a role in influencing barrens. Examples of such long-term persistence of extensive barrens are relatively rare and potential reasons for this and possible future changes are discussed.